OLYMPIA, Wash. — A campaign-sponsored survey suggests substantial support among Washington voters for restricting girls’ interschool sports to biological females, as the state prepares to vote on Initiative 638 on November 3.
The survey, released by Let’s Go Washington, the organization supporting the measure, reported that 56% favored the initiative, 24% opposed it and 20% were undecided among 7,500 likely voters. Reported support included 73% of Republicans, 52% of independents and 48% of Democrats. Some accounts incorrectly listed 22% undecided, a figure that would bring the total to 102%. Fox/OutKick published the original story, while another published report lists the corrected 20% figure.
The campaign has not publicly released the complete methodology, respondent selection, weighting or margin of error, so its figures cannot be independently evaluated. The numbers nevertheless place competitive fairness and sex-based categories at the center of the state’s ballot debate.
Female athletes cite competitive fairness and safety
Supporters of the initiative argue that girls’ sports divisions exist because biological sex differences can affect performance, particularly in events where speed, strength and endurance are decisive. They contend that participation by biologically male athletes in female categories can change race placements, championship awards and competitive opportunities.
Washington’s debate has included transgender track athlete Verónica Garcia, who won Class 2A girls’ 400-meter state championships in 2024 and 2025. In the 2025 final, Garcia ran 55.70 seconds and the runner-up finished in 56.75 seconds. Those results document the outcome of a particular championship; they do not establish how widespread similar circumstances are or how Garcia would have performed in another category.
Supporters have also cited athletes’ concerns about privacy and contact-sport safety. Individual experiences illustrate the dispute, but they are not a measure of how often eligibility conflicts occur. The Washington Interscholastic Activities Association has estimated fewer than 10 known transgender athletes among more than 200,000 student-athletes statewide, a scale that is relevant even though a small number of entrants can still affect individual competitions.
School-sports representatives debated biological-sex eligibility
Washington school sports officials have confronted the question themselves. In 2026, a WIAA Representative Assembly proposal regarding girls’ sports received 29 votes in favor and 24 against but failed to reach the 32 votes required for passage. Existing state requirements also limited what the association could implement independently.
Washington currently permits school athletic participation according to gender identity. Initiative 638 would require a different rule for female-designated interschool individual and team competitions: biologically male students could not compete with or against female students in those categories.
Verification provision creates separate debate
The measure also requires a personal health-care provider to sign a statement verifying biological sex for a student seeking female-designated competition, relying on one or more of reproductive anatomy, genetic makeup or naturally produced testosterone levels. The full initiative text sets out those provisions.
Opponents argue that this new certification requirement could intrude on medical privacy and unnecessarily burden girls seeking to play school sports. Some opponents warn of genital examinations; the initiative does not expressly mandate one, because verification can be based on other listed factors. Still, the proposal would add a specific certification that standard school physical paperwork does not currently require, leaving implementation questions for schools and providers.
Legal landscape allows states to impose restrictions
In June 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld sex-based sports restrictions involving Idaho and West Virginia. Those decisions permit such restrictions under the questions decided by the court, but do not themselves require every state, including Washington, to enact them. The ballot measure would therefore represent a policy choice made by Washington voters rather than an automatic consequence of the rulings.
Campaigns reflect opposing policy priorities
Let’s Go Washington, associated with businessman Brian Heywood, supports Initiative 638 and characterizes the issue as protecting fairness and opportunity for female athletes. Its campaign materials can be found on the organization’s initiative page.
Opponents include LGBTQ advocacy organizations, education and labor groups and Democratic elected officials. They say transgender students should not be excluded from athletics matching their gender identity and argue that medical verification can create additional burdens. The organized opposition is described on the No Hate in WA State campaign website.
Washington voters will decide two related issues through a single ballot measure: whether biological sex should govern eligibility for female athletic categories and whether provider verification is an acceptable way to administer that standard. The sponsor’s polling reports substantial support, but with underlying methodology unavailable, the survey alone cannot determine the November result.
Sources: Washington Secretary of State voter guide; Washington Legislature initiative summary; Fox/OutKick reporting; published poll figures. Featured photograph: Austris Augusts / Unsplash; in-article photograph: Nicolas Hoizey / Unsplash. Both images are illustrative.